Sing We Noel

So much news this week end.

The most disturbing is the shooting of four teenagers at Noel Night in Midtown. This is a holiday event attended by thousands of people. Our first thoughts are to those who were injured.The good new is that none of the injuries are life threatening. But that does little to mitigate the extraordinary disappointment that a 45 year old family tradition would be tarnished by gun violence. It’s unlikely that the shots were random. But we don’t know. Detroit bashers will have their moment. But most of the Twitter Traffic is upbeat. Andrew Ellison captures the consensus.

The United States Senate passed the what the Pod Save America guys call the Donors’ Relief Act.  I hope rank and file Republicans will someday realize that they constantly vote against their own economic best interests. Good Grief!

And finally the news that Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn has plead guilty to lying to the FBI. Slate Magazine does a very good deep dive on the implications for Flynn, Trump and, interestingly, Vice President Pence.  They have this hopeful conclusion.

The prisoner’s dilemma is a famous problem in prosecutions and in academic game theory. A prisoner (or more illustratively in this case, a defendant) knows if he holds out against making a deal, and if all his co-defendants in other jail cells also hold out, they will all go free. However, if he holds out and another defendant confesses and implicates him, he will get a much worse sentence. If everyone confesses, everyone gets something in between.

So, the dilemma here is whether to assume everyone is holding out or whether to assume someone else is confessing to get a better deal. Up until now, only a very small figure—Papadopoulos—had confessed, not enough to make any central figure rethink his assumptions.

But now that Flynn is cooperating with Mueller, all bets are off. Everyone knows the next few cooperators will get deals, but the later you cooperate, the worse deal you get. The last (and biggest) co-conspirators get no deals at all. Flynn’s deal could be a moment that breaks the silence, and opens the gates for others to cooperate with Mueller to get a deal while there are still deals on the table.

Happy Monday everyone. I bought a wreath with lights for the front door. I’m not sure what kind of decorating I’m going to do inside, but I need to do my part to lighten up the outside so the neighborhood sparkles for the holiday.

 

 

 

 

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